Pune: The likelihood of a fresh low-pressure area over the Arabian Sea around Oct 9 has cast a shadow over the exact dates of monsoon's exit from cities like Mumbai and Pune. Oct 8 is the normal monsoon withdrawal date for Mumbai, while it is Oct 9 for Pune. According to the Met department, a low-pressure area is likely to form over Lakshadweep and adjoining southeast & eastcentral Arabian Sea around Oct 9.
"The low pressure could cause more rain in the form of thundershowers in the state in the next few days. We expect some moisture incursion owing to the system, while monsoon withdrawal requires dry conditions and cessation of rainfall activity over an area for continuous 3-5 days. As per models, some rainfall is likely in the coming days," an IMD official said.
IMD has, however, said conditions were favourable for further withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from remaining parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and some more parts of Maharashtra during next 2-3 days. Abhijit Modak, an independent weather forecaster, said for him, the monsoon had already withdrawn from Mumbai and Pune as there had been a significant drop in humidity levels in these areas. "The monsoon withdrawal can be considered when humidity levels drop below 50%, which has been observed in some parts of Maharashtra.
The development of a low-pressure system over the Arabian Sea has coincided with the withdrawal period, creating uncertainty about when the monsoon is likely to fully withdraw from the region," he said..