In a recent study published in Nature Medicine , researchers projected age- and sex-specific heat-related deaths across Europe by 2023. They also calculated the death load saved via social adaptation to increasing temperatures since 2000. Background Climate change poses significant health hazards worldwide, with Europe experiencing the hottest record globally and the second-warmest in Europe in 2023.
The world may cross the 1.5°C threshold set by the Paris Agreement by 2027, and summer heat-related health consequences pose challenges for European society and public health systems. In 2003, some European nations failed to deal with the health repercussions of warm summers, prompting heat protection initiatives.
In 2022, over 60,000 heat-related deaths were linked to record-breaking summer temperatures, casting doubt on the significance of adaptation in averting mortality without temporal changes in heat exposure. About the study In the present study, researchers quantified the heat-related death burden in 2023, computed for weeks warmer than the minimum mortality temperature, and fitted epidemiological models in factual-counterfactual scenarios to assess the role of adaptation in mitigating the 2023 death toll in the context of rising temperatures. Adaptation denoted a time shift in exposure-response connections, such as the minimum mortality temperature and relative risks.
Researchers analyzed temperature and death statistics from 823 contiguous areas across 35 nations, repr.