We’re a week out from Thanksgiving, still figuring out how much turkey to buy ( really? that much? ), how a bird that size will possibly fit into our oven and whether we might use our next-door neighbor’s oven as a backup. You know, the same questions that vexed the pilgrims all those years ago. In terms of the Oscars, it’s a bit early to make any assumptions about how the races will play out over the next few months.

But taking big swings can be fun, even if they don’t always connect. (RIP “Joker: Folie à Deux.”) So let’s trot out five early award season assumptions and determine whether or not they’ll pan out.

Assumption: “Wicked” is an undeniable best picture contender. Answer: True At the Los Angeles premiere of “Wicked,” producer Marc Platt, who has been shepherding the project since producing the 2003 Broadway show, struck an early campaign tone. “What you’re about to see tonight, I want you to remember because I think it will resonate and feel so relevant to you .

.. and reflect the lives you’re living and the world you live in,” Platt said from the stage.

I don’t think he was talking about flying monkeys. At least, I hope not. Because there are flying monkeys in “Wicked,” and no one is too happy about it, least of all the monkeys.

What Platt was leaning into was the movie’s depiction of a world empowering an authoritarian leader (in this case, dear Wizard) who uses scapegoating to prey on — and stoke — people’s fears. You.