MT-SEN: This State has Changed a LOT in Six Years. Can Sen. Jon Tester Keep Up With Montana?

Sen. Jon Tester has a problem. Politicians want elections to be as predictable as possible. Yet there is a HUGE wild card in the election for Senate in 2024 and it is unclear whether or not it helps him.The fresh population of wealthier residents — often retirees, technology workers able to do their jobs remotely and other big-city transplants — is one of the largest question marks hanging over Montana’s crucial race for Senate. As Jon Tester, the Democratic incumbent, looks to fend off Tim Sheehy, a businessman and retired Navy SEAL who is expected to capture the Republican nomination, tensions over the exploding growth will be a top issue in November.And how the new Montanans vote could prove decisive.On the surface, their presence might seem to benefit the embattled Mr. Tester, because a sizable chunk of them — 35 percent of arrivals in 2022 — hail from left-leaning states like California, Colorado, Oregon and Washington, according to census data analyzed by the real estate firm CBRE. Some political experts, though, believe the arrivals could tilt more to the right, noting a broader phenomenon in which conservatives have left their home states in part because of what they see as liberal overreach.“Especially during the pandemic, there was movement from people out of more blue areas looking for a different, kind of more Republican, way of life,” said Dr. Jessi Bennion, a professor of political science at Montana State University. “My best guess is that a lot of the people moving to the state are those kinds of transplants.”Montana does not have party registration, so the leanings of these voters remain in dispute.“It’s a puzzle,” Dr. Bennion said. “This next election is going to show us a lot about the ways those voters approach politics.”Though the flood of transplants has slowed in the last year, it could account for a significant portion of votes. From 2020 through 2023, about 52,000 more people arrived in Montana than left it, according to the state’s Department of Labor and Industry; Mr. Tester won re-election in 2018 by fewer than 18,000 votes. The state’s total population is just over 1.1 million.Could the influx of new people and record numbers of registered voters save Tester as Trump romps up the ballot? Or will they be the nail in the coffin for the incumbent and thus our chances of holding the Senate? That’s the urgent question that Democrats have to answer to save their last elected statewide official in Montana.Like reading election-themed articles? I am continuing a massive series of them each Sunday and Wednesday morning! Make sure to follow #SaveTheMajority and the group Save the Majority so you don’t miss important races down the ballot!The Senate is at great risk of flipping to the GOP in November. Supporting 9 Democratic candidates is key to a Senate Democratic majority. Sen. Jon Tester is one of the 9 candidates in winnable races I am fundraising for this election!DONATE TO THESE 9 CANDIDATES TO #SAVE OUR SENATE!Sen. Jon Tester for MT-SENOfficial Senate Website | Facebook | Twitter | YouTubeCampaign Website | Facebook | Twitter | Instagram | YouTube | DONATE | VolunteerWhat’s the Big Idea?THIS STATE IS A TOSSUP, with an R+11 PVI2018 results for the Montana Senate race.Montana very rarely tosses out its Senators. Looking back at previous elections shows that it has happened three times in the previous 100 years: 1952, 1988, and 2006. The most recent time it happened was when Jon Tester barely defeated Sen. Conrad Burns when the latter was implicated in the Abramoff scandal. Tester won that race 49.2% to 48.3% or about 3000 votes. The Libertarian candidate received around 10,000 votes and played the spoiler role in that election.In 2012, Tester faced Rep. Danny Rehberg for his first re-election. Rehberg had held the sole Montana House seat for a dozen years and was a formidable challenger. Obama was expected to lose the state by double-digits which made Tester vulnerable, but he wound up winning 48.6% to 44.9%, with the Libertarian candidate once again playing spoiler by winning around 32,000 votes.2018 was a midterm election while Trump was President. However, Trump easily won Montana and there was no guarantee of winning reelection for Tester (many incumbents in Trump-won states lost that year). He portrayed Matt Rosendale as an outsider that didn’t reflect true Montana values. This was the first time Tester took a majority, with the incumbent winning 50.3% to 46.8%. Comparing 2018 to 2020 clearly shows a group of pro-Trump voters sat out the election or crossed over for Tester. 604k voted in 2020, while 504k voted in the 2018 electionAs discussed in the opening, Montana has changed a lot since then which may put the incumbent at great risk. Tester shares the ballot with Trump who is projected to win Montana by a great margin once again. Tester will have to re-create the 2018 map and do better in certain counties to offset areas which will turn against him. If anyone can walk this political tightrope, it is Sen. Jon Tester.Why is Trump campaigning in Montana, while the Harris/Walz ticket is nowhere to be found? Well, Tester is going to need to keep the two at a distance because their agenda is unpopular in the state. Yet being overtly against the duo will dampen enthusiasm for the entire ticket. He’s already being portrayed as a “leftist DC Democrat” by the GOP and he cannot give them ammunition that makes the portrayal true.For the benchmarks below, I am looking at the 2018 Senate results and adjusting counties Tester won by 1-2% upward to account for areas that won’t be as favorable to him. Someone else also has slightly different benchmarks. Here's some county level benchmarks for the upcoming Montana Senate Race! This is from a Dem POV; if Tester hits the benchmarks, he's very likely to win the race. On the contrary, if he underperforms the benchmarks, he's very likely to lose. Feel free to use this as a guide! pic.twitter.com/8JnOJtfJzv— David (@davidsacc12345) August 16, 2024Here’s where this Montana race will be won.Missoula County: Missoula is the second-largest city in Montana and home to the University of Montana. It is probably the county that will make the most difference to Tester in terms of raw votes. He will likely have to clear 70% of the vote in this county to win.Cascade County: Great Falls is found here and is the third-largest city in Montana. This is a swing county in the state and is a must-win for Tester. He will likely have to clear 53% of the vote to have a shot at a statewide win.Gallatin County: Bozeman, the fourth-largest city in Montana, is found here. It is home to Montana State University which is a rich source of votes. Tester will likely have to get above 60% to have a chance of winning.Silver Bow and Deer Lodge Counties: Butte and Anaconda have a legacy of mining and union membership. Now, Butte is home to Montana Technical University. Tester will need to crack above 70% of the vote in both counties to win this time.Lewis and Clark County: Helena, which is the state capital, is found in this county. Seats of government have been trending to the left in recent times and Tester needs that to happen again to win. If he cannot count on about 60% of the vote he will lose.Tribal Nations: There are many different reservations in Montana, and in what is expected to be a close race their votes matter. It is often difficult for indigenous peoples in this country to vote, so I hope Tester is devoting resources to solve this problem.Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we lose.Yellowstone County: It is this county that will make or break Sen. Tester. It is home to Billings which is the largest city in the state. Tester lost this county in 2018 but he may have to win it this time around in order to win statewide.Eastern High Plains: Other than the aforementioned tribal nations, there isn’t a whole lot to like in eastern Montana. The area may have a small population, but the people there consistently vote against Democrats. Tester reduced the margins somewhat in 2018, and he’ll have to do it again in 2024.Northwestern Montana: Whitefish is favorable to us, but the rest of the area has plenty of conservative retirees. Kalispell is the center of northwestern Montana, and there has been an influx of voters from California and other blue states. Tester will have to do better than Harris in order to win the state.Southwestern Montana: There are a lot of libertarian “don’t tread on me” types here. This area is also red, and it is likely that Sheehy will rack up high margins in this part of the state. Tester needs to recruit what votes are there and work extra hard to offset the rest of the votes coming from here. Sen. Jon Tester: Dirt Farmer Turned PoliticianTester lost fingers in a farming accident. Doesn’t get more authentic than that!Sen. Jon Tester was born in Havre, Montana in 1956. He grew up near the town of Big Sandy on land his grandfather homesteaded on in 1912. When he was nine years old, he lost the middle three fingers on his left hand in a meat-grinder accident. He could no longer play the saxophone but he still appreciated music enough to get a B.A. in the field in 1978 from the College of Great Falls.Tester worked as the local music teacher for two years before deciding to return to the family farm and butcher shop. Tester and his wife still run the farm today even as they changed the operation in the 1980s from a traditional farm to an organic one. Tester truly is a man of the earth, and that leads to his strength on agricultural issues in the Senate such as fighting corporate consolidation in agriculture.Tester became influential in the community of Big Sandy when he joined the school board and several agricultural committees in the area. When his neighbor retired from the Montana State Senate in 1998, he decided to run for the chamber as a Democrat. Tester eventually rose to the position of President of the chamber in 2005 which springboarded him to success in the 2006 Senate race when he was term-limited.Tester is seen as a centrist or moderate Democrat, but he rarely obstructs the Democratic agenda like Sinema or Manchin do. A New York Times profile of Tester after his 2006 election described him as "truly your grandfather's Democrat—a pro-gun, anti-big-business prairie pragmatist whose life is defined by the treeless patch of hard Montana dirt that has been in the family since 1916". He voted with Trump’s stated position 30% of the time while Trump was in office. During the Biden presidency, Tester voted with Biden’s stated position 91% of the time.Tester votes his state when it comes to two key issues: immigration and guns. In 2010, Tester voted against the DREAM Act but eventually changed course during the Trump years and supported comprehensive immigration reform. Like many Democrats in red states, Tester has to walk a fine line between gun safety measures and supporting the Second Amendment. He’s helped to block comprehensive background checks before in 2016. Yet he voted for the bipartisan Safer Communities Act after Uvalde which contained many of the same measures.Tester also has a bit of a libertarian streak in him. A bone of contention in his first Senate race was his stance on the PATRIOT Act. "I don't want to weaken the PATRIOT Act, I want to repeal it!" He has voted against both Democratic and GOP nominees for CIA Director, Attorney General, and the Supreme Court due to their weaknesses on these issues. He even joined Sen. Rand Paul in a filibuster attempt aimed at blocking the reauthorization of the PATRIOT Act in 2015!There are certain issues where Tester brooks no compromise with the other side though. One of them is the battle over abortion rights. It would be easy in a state like Montana to be a moderate on this issue, but Tester hasn’t flinched. He has advocated for single-payer health care in the past as well, going so far as to say we need to "work to fix what's wrong with the current health care system in a bipartisan way. And that means going through a committee process, not doing it in a dark room with a select few, but going through the committee process and getting good ideas from everybody".Tester isn’t perfect - but he doesn’t have to be in order to be a valuable member of the Democratic Senate caucus. Remember that he’s the last statewide elected official in our party for the entire state of Montana. Tim Sheehy: Yet Another OutsiderSheehy has a LOT of holes in his personal story. They will be attacked relentlessly by Tester.Tim Sheehy was born in Shoreview, Minnesota and lived on a multi-million dollar lakefront property. This contradicts the lie that Sheehy lived in a rural setting in his formative years. As recently as 2016, he listed this property as his primary residence and did so until his parents sold it in 2017. While in Minnesota, he attended a swanky private high school and learned to fly from a neighbor. He was accepted into the US Naval Academy and that is where the true story begins.Sheehy was part of an exchange program that allowed midshipmen to attend US Army Ranger School as well. After this experience, he was commissioned in the US Navy and became a Navy SEAL. The official story being sold is that Sheehy was wounded in combat and that is why he left the Navy. But there are many inconsistencies in his story:Most notably, Sheehy, who now owns an aerial firefighting business, has told voters that he has a bullet in his arm from combat in Afghanistan. But he told a National Park Service ranger in 2015 that he had accidentally shot himself when his Colt .45 revolver fell and discharged in Montana’s Glacier National Park, according to a record of the episode filed in court. When asked about that account last week, Sheehy told The Washington Post that he had lied to the ranger to protect himself and his former platoon mates from scrutiny over an old bullet wound that he said he had suffered in Afghanistan in 2012.Finally, Sheehy has offered different explanations for his exit from the Navy — variously saying he left because of wounds from Afghanistan and because of a heart problem triggered by an underwater training mission in the Pacific.That’s not the end of the story, as it appears he either lied about being wounded in the Middle East or filed a false police report. His refusal to release hospital records also raises more suspicions.A newly discovered detailed written statement from Sheehy to a law enforcement officer seemingly confirms that he accidentally shot himself in 2015 when his Colt .45 revolver fell and discharged in the national park.“As a highly trained and combat experienced wounded veteran, I can assure you this was an unfortunate accident and we are grateful no other persons or property were damaged,” Sheehy said in a 2015 statement apologizing for illegally discharging his firearm in the park. The statement was obtained by the Post after it filed a Freedom of Information Act request.“Due to my ongoing security clearance and involvement with national defense related contracts, I request leniency with any charges related to this unfortunate accident.”Anyways, Sheehy and his wife loved Montana and relocated to Bozeman. He founded Bridger Aerospace, which is an aerial firefighting company and Ascent Vision Technologies, which developed surveillance and imaging systems for defense and aerospace contractors. Sheehy sold AVT for $75M in 2020, potentially making him one of the wealthiest members of the Senate should he be elected. He has his share of employee problems just like many of the other Senate candidates. His businesses are also hemorrhaging money right now, which questions his business credentials. He listed one of his businesses as a service-disabled veteran-owned business, but that filing was contested and led to major losses of money and contracts.He used that money to buy ranch land in Martinsdale, Montana and founded the Little Belt Cattle Company. The ranch is approximately 30,000 acres and hosts 2000 cattle. This newly-minted rancher doesn’t have the experience Tester has in agriculture, but that didn’t stop him from questioning Tester’s farming credentials. Fake farmer Tim Sheehy DEFINITELY doesn’t want you to see this out-of-touch clip of him questioning Jon Tester’s farming credentials.pic.twitter.com/NiJezWGzE6— American Bridge 21st Century (@American_Bridge) June 5, 2024That’s not the only purchase of land with his newfound money either. He is listed as manager of Bird Point LLC, which recently purchased a secluded, 7-acre peninsula on the south shore of Flathead Lake, according to HuffPost’s review of property and business records. The property features a 5,000-square-foot, 6-bedroom main house, a 2-bedroom guest cabin and 3-bedroom “caretaker quarters,” multiple docks, a sandy beach, a tennis court, five-car garage and 2,400 feet of waterfront. When the property went on the market in 2020 for just under $10 million, luxury real estate site Mansion Global wrote that “superlatives such as ‘unique,’ ‘totally private’ and ‘stunning’ are hardly exaggerations.”The Sheehys purchased the property some time in the last year, although it is unclear what the family paid. Montana Cadastral, a property database maintained by Montana State Library, lists the property’s value at $5.1 million.Business records also show Sheehy is manager of Half Hitch Big Sky LLC, which owns a 3,200-square-foot chalet in the ritzy, unincorporated resort community of Big Sky. Built in 2006 and part of Moonlight Basin, a private club in Big Sky, the home features five bedrooms, six full bathrooms, an outdoor hot tub and “prime ski in/ski out access,” and rents for an average $1,400 per night, according to a rental listing on Vrbo.The property is valued at $7.7 million, according to Montana Cadastral. The Vrbo listing notes it is located in Moonlight’s Diamond Hitch subdivision, which Big Sky Real Estate Co. has called “coveted.”Sheehy has made the changes in Montana and the loss of the traditional Montana way of life a central focus of his campaign, but it is clear that he is yet another wealthy plutocratic transplant that is part of the problem. This may help him with the new arrivals, but it also builds resentment amongst those with deep Montana roots.Sheehy’s stances on the issues are a problem as well. He’s changed positions on a host of issues in order to kiss the ring of Donald Trump, who has endorsed him. For instance, in a nod to the farthest-right elements in the state, Sheehy has claimed that the Department of Homeland Security is not needed and should be abolished.Instead of the steady hand of Tester, outsider Tim Sheehy would bring chaos and more MAGA antics to the Senate. How Can You Help?Money isn’t an issue for either candidate in this race. Montana is a cheap state to advertise and organize in and both candidates have raised over $10M and have robust cash-on-hand totals. There is also plenty of outside spending happening as well. I pity the people of Montana who will be deluged with political ads until mid-November.Trump came to Montana to help Sheehy get elected. He held a rally in Gallatin County on August 9th for the challenger. Meanwhile, Tester is keeping MVP Harris at bay, knowing that aligning too closely to her would be his political obituary.Tester is in the most critical race for our retention of the Senate, so if you have phone banked before please sign up for a shift or two. Virtual phone bank opportunities happen every Sunday, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday across Montana. Montana is such a huge state that this is likely the most efficient way to reach the voters.That doesn’t mean that door knocking is being neglected. Billings has been an active zone, and Helena, Missoula, Butte, and Bozeman have robust operations as well. There are so many opportunities in the state to volunteer that it may be best to click on the link provided at the top or bottom of this article. It takes you to the Montana Democratic Party Mobilize page. Most of the recent polling has Sen. Jon Tester behind, mostly outside the margin of error. That is why I’m tempted to rate the race as “Leans Republican” even when the main prognosticators have it as a “Tossup”. These ratings aggregators rarely rate incumbents as any worse than a tossup but it is clear to me that Tester is in trouble. To make matters worse, there is a member of the Green Party contesting the seat which could offset the usual spoiler effect of the Libertarian running.One polling firm is finding different results, with Tester in the lead. Perhaps writing his political obituary is premature... #New Senate poll - Montana 🔵 Tester 49% (+5) 🔴 Sheehy 44% RMG #C - 504 RV - 8/14— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) August 15, 2024It would be a huge problem if Sen. Jon Tester loses this race. Control of the Senate hinges on this race, and if we lose it we likely lose the Senate. Sure, we could replace Montana with Texas or Florida, but those are even longer shots than retaining this seat with our incumbent.Tim Sheehy is the type of person that is changing Montana for the worse. He’s one of those wealthy people that treat the state as their playground by buying up choice properties and treading on the traditional way of life. His backstory is troubling, especially with his inability to keep the story straight. Sadly, he has a good chance of being Montana’s next Senator, as I think this is the 2nd most likely seat to flip.The question is whether the newcomers to the state will vote for a fellow newcomer in Sheehy or a traditional son of Montana in Tester. The fate of the Senate could hinge on this very question.Sen. Jon Tester for MT-SENOfficial Senate Website | Facebook | Twitter | YouTubeCampaign Website | Facebook | Twitter | Instagram | YouTube | DONATE | VolunteerHere is the Save Our Senate 2024 Fund on ActBlue! The 2024 Senate map is a brutal one! These 9 candidates are the key to holding the Senate. Please donate and then share a link to this site on your social media! #SaveOurSenate