Morning Digest: Missouri will vote on restoring abortion rights despite GOP obstruction

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.Leading Off● MO Ballot: After putting up every possible roadblock, Republican officials finally certified an amendment for the November ballot that would allow voters to restore abortion rights in the state of Missouri.Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, who last week took a disappointing third place in the Republican primary for the state's open governorship, issued a press release Tuesday confirming that the amendment, which will be identified as Amendment 3 on the ballot, had turned in the requisite number of signatures. He also gave the green light to a separate amendment concerning gambling, as well as a statutory measure that would increase the minimum wage.In Missouri, citizen-initiated amendment efforts need to collect signatures equal to at least 8% of the vote in the last race for governor in six of the state's eight congressional districts, a task that's difficult for progressives in a state where Joe Biden in 2020 carried just two constituencies on the Republican-drawn map.Amendment 3 satisfied this requirement in the requisite six districts, though it was close. Ashcroft verified that the coalition promoting the plan, Missourians for Constitutional Freedom, collected 32,882 valid signatures from the dark red 7th District in the southwestern part of the state, which was just over the 30,013 minimum they needed here.But Amendment 3 made the cut, and it will require only a simple majority of voters to approve it this fall. If passed, it would end the state's near-total ban on abortion and allow the procedure to take place about 24 weeks into a pregnancy.Republican state legislators, Attorney General Andrew Bailey, and Ashcroft, however, made multiple attempts to sabotage this plan's chances for success. Last year, the state House advanced a proposed constitutional amendment that would have made future amendments harder to enact by raising the required level of voter support from the current simple majority to a 57% supermajority.But while the Senate appeared poised to follow suit, the effort came screeching to a halt during the final hours of the session when a handful of far-right renegades held up legislative business in order to promote their own pet issues. (One of these rebels was state Sen. Bill Eigel, who unexpectedly took more votes than Ashcroft in last week's primary for governor; both men lost to Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe.)The Show Me State GOP, though, wasn't ready to give up, and Republicans remained determined even after their counterparts in Ohio failed badly in their attempt to convince their state's voters to pass a similar amendment.This year, GOP lawmakers tried to advance a different amendment that would have required constitutional amendments to earn a majority of votes both statewide and in a majority of the state's eight congressional districts, effectively requiring a statewide supermajority only for liberal-backed measures and not ones favored by conservatives. This plan also fell apart, though, thanks to two filibusters by Senate Democrats—including an epic, 50-hour talk-a-thon in May—as well as more GOP infighting.Bailey and Ashcroft, meanwhile, last year each tried to use the powers of their respective offices to undermine what would become Amendment 3. The attorney general demanded that another Republican, Auditor Scott Fitzpatrick, estimate that the passage of an abortion-rights amendment could cost the state "as much as $51 billion dollars."While Fitzpatrick, who had determined the cost would be just $51,000, made it clear he opposed abortion rights, he sued Bailey for trying to force him to provide "inaccurate information." The state Supreme Court sided with Fitzpatrick in July 2023 and told Bailey to do his "ministerial duty" and certify the amendment. (Bailey, unlike Ashcroft, won his primary last week by decisively turning back a well-funded challenger.)But Missourians for Constitutional Freedom was unable to begin the difficult task of collecting signatures for several more months because it was engaged in its own lawsuit against Ashcroft. The secretary of state issued ballot-summary text that said the plan would "allow for dangerous, unregulated, and unrestricted abortions, from conception to live birth, without requiring a medical license or potentially being subject to medical malpractice."A state judge later ruled that Ashcroft's version was "replete with politically partisan language," and he substituted a different summary. This matter was finally settled in November when Missouri's highest court refused to hear the secretary of state's appeal, but MCF's leaders weren't sure they'd have enough time to meet the state's challenging signature requirements in time for the deadline the following May.It didn't help that former Republican political operative Jamie Corley was trying to place an alternative amendment on the ballot that would not go nearly as far as what MCF was pursuing. (Ashcroft also issued misleading ballot-summary language for her proposals.)But while Corley argued that "I think we have a much different view and assessment about what is ultimately passable in Missouri," she instead ended up backing what became Amendment 3. Corley also campaigned to succeed Ashcroft as secretary of state, only to take seventh place in the primary that was won by far-right state Sen. Denny Hoskins.After all of this, though, MCF has an amendment on the fall ballot that needs just a simple majority to pass. And progressives have reason to be optimistic that it can: A tracking poll from Civiqs, which shows that voters nationwide believe abortion should be legal most or all of the time by a 61-34 margin, also finds that a small 50-46 plurality of Missourians feel the same way.Election Recaps● MN-Sen (R): Former NBA player Royce White defeated banker Joe Fraser 39-29 in Tuesday's Republican primary to take on Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar in Minnesota. While polls show that either challenger would have had a difficult time defeating Klobuchar, a far-right conspiracy theorist like White could make him an unwelcome distraction for fellow Minnesota Republicans in more winnable races in a way that Fraser wouldn't have been.● MN-02 (R): Former federal prosecutor Joe Teirab beat attorney Tayler Rahm 76-24 in the Republican primary to face Democratic Rep. Angie Craig in Minnesota's 2nd District. According to calculations by Daily Kos Elections, President Joe Biden carried this seat in the southern Twin Cities suburbs by a 53-45 margin four years ago.Rahm, who had struggled to raise money, announced last month that he was suspending his campaign to join Donald Trump's state campaign. Rahm, though, continued to send out mailers to primary voters, and some observers speculated that his support from conservative activists could allow him to pull off an upset. This didn't happen, though, and Teirab will now be able to focus on beating Craig in a constituency that has moved to the left in recent years.● MN-05 (D): Rep. Ilhan Omar won her primary rematch against former Minneapolis City Council member Don Samuels 56-43 in Minnesota's dark blue 5th District. Samuels held her to a surprisingly slim 50-48 victory two years ago, but he struggled to convince Omar's detractors that he could beat the better-prepared incumbent this time around. Still, while Omar's 13-point win was considerably better than her last performance, the result was not especially dominant for a well-funded and prominent three-term incumbent.● MN-07 (R): Rep. Michelle Fischbach defeated businessman Steve Boyd 65-35 to win renomination in the safely red 7th District in western Minnesota. Boyd unexpectedly prevented Fischbach from securing the necessary 60% support she needed to win the party endorsement in April, but the hard-right challenger had little money to wage a serious campaign against her with the larger primary electorate.● WI-03 (D): Businesswoman Rebecca Cooke outpaced state Rep. Katrina Shankland 50-41 in the Democratic primary to take on Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden, a freshman who made national news last summer when he reportedly screamed at teenage Senate pages, in Wisconsin's 3rd District. Cooke, who took second to state Sen. Brad Pfaff in the 2022 primary, used her new campaign to argue that she was a political "outsider" who would have a better chance to win than Shankland. Cooke told the Wisconsin Examiner earlier this year that while the two have similar political views, Shankland "might lean a little bit more left."Trump carried this southwestern Wisconsin seat 51-47 in 2020, but Democrats hope that what used to be a blue bastion is still winnable for the party. Van Orden, who attended the Jan. 6 Trump rally that preceded the riot at the U.S. Capitol, beat Pfaff only 52-48 the next year, after national Democrats canceled their ad reservations. Progressive Janet Protasiewicz, meanwhile, carried the 3rd District 55-45, according to analyst Drew Savicki, as she was winning the officially nonpartisan state Supreme Court race a few months later. The Democratic group House Majority PAC is betting that Van Orden is beatable, and it's reserved millions in ad time to attack him.● WI-08 (R): Businessman Tony Wied, who has Trump's endorsement, beat former state Sen. Roger Roth in two separate Republican primaries for the conservative 8th District in northeastern Wisconsin. Wied, who is the former owner of a dinosaur-themed chain of gas stations, scored a 41-34 victory to win the nod for a full two-year term, with the balance going to state Sen. Andre Jacque. Wied won by a slightly larger 43-33 margin in the special primary for the final two months of former Rep. Mike Gallagher's term. (Gallagher, to the frustration of his fellow Republicans, departed just weeks after it was too late for the special election to be held before the fall general election.) Wied will take on the Democratic nominee, ob-gyn Kristin Lyerly, twice on Nov. 5.Wied drew attention with ads featuring Trump himself demanding that Roth, whom he denounced as "no friend of MAGA," drop out of the race. Roth, who lost a 2010 primary to represent a previous version of this constituency, benefited from $2 million in outside spending, but it wasn't enough to overcome the insults of his party's supreme master.● WI Ballot: Wisconsin voters decisively rejected a pair of constitutional amendments placed on the ballot by Republicans that would have stripped Democratic Gov. Tony Evers of key powers.Question 1, which would have barred legislators from delegating authority over spending to the executive branch, failed 57-43. Question 2, which would have prohibited the governor from dispensing federal funds without the legislature's explicit permission, went down by a similar 58-42 margin.The GOP-run legislature, which drafted both amendments, hoped that they could pass during a low-turnout primary. Progressives, however, spent millions on ads imploring Wisconsinites to vote "no" on both, with one spot warning that the measures were "designed to trick voters into eliminating checks and balances in our government."Senate● NE-Sen-A: The super PAC Retire Career Politicians has now spent about $560,000 on TV ads touting Nebraska independent Dan Osborn, reports the Washington Post's Patrick Svitek, which is more than double the size of the buy we had a few days ago. Osborn is trying to unseat Republican Sen. Deb Fischer, who has no Democratic opponent.● Senate & House: Several super PACs aligned with the crypto industry have announced they will deploy millions in the general election to help Senate and House candidates from both parties.On the Senate side, Defend American Jobs says that it will spend at least $12 million to defeat Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat who has long had a bad relationship with crypto backers. The senator's Republican foe, wealthy businessman Bernie Moreno, conversely is an ardent industry ally who in 2018 called for turning Northeast Ohio into a blockchain hub to be dubbed "Blockland."Other Democratic Senate hopefuls, though, are about to benefit from the help of a different crypto super PAC. Protect Progress plans to spend $3 million each to help a pair of Democratic candidates in open seats, Arizona's Ruben Gallego and Michigan's Elissa Slotkin.Meanwhile, a third super PAC, Fairshake, declared last week that it would spend a total of $25 million to back 18 different House incumbents, with half hailing from each party:AK-AL: Mary Peltola (D)AZ-06: Juan Ciscomani (R)CA-22: David Valadao (R)CA-27: Mike Garcia (R)CA-40: Young Kim (R)CA-45: Michelle Steel (R)CO-08: Yadira Caraveo (D)IA-03: Zach Nunn (R)IL-13: Nikki Budzinski (D)IL-17: Eric Sorensen (D)MN-02: Angie Craig (D)NC-01: Don Davis (D)NV-04: Steven Horsford (D)NY-03: Tom Suozzi (D)NY-18: Pat Ryan (D)OR-05: Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R)TX-15: Monica De La Cruz (R)WI-01: Bryan Steil (R)We do not have a breakdown for how much Fairshake plans to spend in each seat, though Politico reports that it will spend $2 million each to help Suozzi and Ryan in New York. Politico, citing data from AdImpact, also reports that Fairshake has booked $525,000 to aid Valadao, $878,000 each for Kim and Steel, and $1.9 million for Garcia.Governors● UT-Gov: State Rep. Phil Lyman announced Monday that he would wage a write-in campaign against Utah Gov. Spencer Cox, a declaration that came seven weeks after Cox fended off the far-right legislator 54-46 in the Republican primary.Lyman, who made a name for himself by advancing lies about the 2020 and 2022 elections, characteristically responded to his June defeat by suing in state court. He's even argued that the state Supreme Court should remove Cox and Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson from office and replace them with state Senate President Stuart Adams. It is unlikely that the state's judicial system, which forced Lyman to pick a new running mate in May because his first choice did not meet Utah's residency requirements, will take such action.Lyman also told the Salt Lake Tribune that he'd prefer having the Democratic nominee, state Rep. Brian King, serve as governor instead of Cox. King, though, will still face a difficult battle in a dark red state that last elected a Democratic chief executive in 1980.House● CA-47: The gun safety organization Giffords PAC has reserved almost $2 million to aid California Democrat Dave Min's campaign to succeed Democratic Rep. Katie Porter in the competitive 47th District.● NY-22, OH-09: The DCCC has launched its first general election ads of the cycle, following a similar move several weeks ago by the NRCC. The Democrats' new ads are airing against both Rep. Brandon Williams in New York's 22nd District, a top pickup target in the Syracuse area, and Derek Merrin in Ohio's 9th, a Democratic-held seat around Toledo where Rep. Marcy Kaptur is one of the party's most vulnerable members. Late last month, the NRCC began running ads in Alaska, where they hope to unseat Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola.● TX-18: Democratic leaders in Harris County voted Tuesday to make former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner the party's general election nominee in place of the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee. Turner narrowly defeated former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards 41-37 in the second and final round of balloting. Texas' 18th District, which includes parts of central and northern Houston, backed Joe Biden 74-25, and Turner is all but assured a place in the next Congress.It's not quite clear, though, who will represent this seat for the final two months of Jackson Lee's term. The congresswoman's daughter, Erica Lee Carter, announced Monday that she'd compete in the Nov. 5 special election. Both Lee Carter and her brother endorsed Turner for the full term earlier this month, but she argued it was necessary to end the 118th Congress "in the way that" Jackson Lee would have. The filing deadline for the special is Aug. 22. ● UT-02: Army veteran Colby Jenkins finally conceded the June 25 Republican primary on Tuesday night to Rep. Celeste Maloy after the Utah Supreme Court rejected his lawsuit seeking to count almost 1,200 additional mail-in ballots. Maloy won by just 176 votes following a recount, but she should have a far easier time this fall securing reelection in the conservative 2nd District.Ballot Measures● AZ Ballot: Arizona election officials announced Monday that a proposed state constitutional amendment to protect reproductive rights has qualified for the November ballot, where it will be identified as Proposition 139. Democratic Secretary of State Adrian Fontes' office verified that Arizona for Abortion Access submitted about 578,000 valid signatures last month, which is well over the 384,000 minimum it needed.The amendment, as we previously wrote, would safeguard abortion rights until fetal viability, which is about 22 to 24 weeks into a pregnancy. The current law, which Republicans passed in 2022, bans the procedure after 15 weeks with no exceptions for rape or incest. Arizona for Abortion Access has argued that the status quo is unacceptable and "denies us the right to make decisions about our own health."Poll PileND-Sen: Lake Research Partners (D) for Katrina Christiansen: Kevin Cramer (R-inc): 51, Katrina Christiansen (D): 38NV-Sen: Providence Polling (R): Jacky Rosen (D-inc): 52, Sam Brown (R): 40 (49-44 Harris with third-party candidates)This is the first survey we've ever seen from Providence Polling, a firm that the Nevada Independent says is run by a pair of GOP consultants. However, the site also relays that this poll, which gives Nevada Democrats some of the best numbers they've seen all cycle, was not paid for by a client.Ad RoundupAZ-Sen: Ruben Gallego (D) - anti-Kari Lake (R); Gallego (in English and Spanish); Gallego; Gallego (in Spanish)MT-Sen: Tim Sheehy (R); One Nation - anti-Jon Tester (D-inc)NV-Sen: Duty and Honor - pro-Jacky Rosen (D-inc) ($369,000 buy); One Nation - anti-RosenOH-Sen: One Nation - anti-Sherrod Brown (D-inc)PA-Sen: Bob Casey (D-inc) - anti-Dave McCormick (R)NC-Gov: Josh Stein (D)NH-Gov: Chuck Morse (R)CA-13: House Majority Forward - anti-John Duarte (R-inc) (in Spanish)CA-22: House Majority Forward - anti-David Valadao (R-inc) (in English and Spanish)CA-27: House Majority Forward - anti-Mike Garcia (R-inc)CA-45: House Majority Forward - anti-Michelle Steel (R-inc)IA-01: Christina Bohannan (D) - anti-Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-inc)ME-02: Jared Golden (D-inc)MI-03: Hillary Scholten (D-inc)NC-01: House Majority Forward - pro-Don Davis (D-inc)NH-01: Chris Pappas (D-inc)NM-02: House Majority Forward - pro-Gabe Vasquez (D-inc) (in Spanish)NY-17: House Majority Forward - anti-Mike Lawler (R-inc)NY-19: Marc Molinaro (R-inc) ($112,000 buy, additional $108,000 coordinated buy with NRCC) NY-22: John Mannion (D) ($58,000 buy)PA-07: House Majority Forward - pro-Susan Wild (D-inc)TX-15: Michelle Vallejo (D)VA-02: House Majority Forward - anti-Jen Kiggans (R-inc)Campaign Action