Pune: India Meteorological Department ( IMD ) on Friday said a significant monsoon revival in Maharashtra was unlikely up to the end of Aug. Medha Khole, head of the weather forecasting division at IMD, Pune, told TOI, “All four subdivisions of Maharashtra are experiencing dry conditions . This situation is likely until Aug 22.
The probability of significant monsoon revival until Aug 22 remains low.” Khole said, “A low-pressure area has formed over the northwest Bay of Bengal. However, its projected northerly to northwesterly trajectory is unlikely to contribute to monsoon revival in Maharashtra.
The system’s movement pattern is not conducive to generating rainfall over the state.” The absence of an offshore trough, combined with a weak pressure gradient over the west coast, has diminished the strength of monsoon winds. “As a result, there is minimal moisture incursion from the Arabian Sea,” she said.
The IMD’s Extended Range Forecast (ERF) for the period after Aug 22 indicates a potential increase in rainfall activity. “However, this is not expected to be a dramatic revival comparable to previous intense episodes. While isolated to scattered light rainfall may occur across all four subdivisions, widespread or intense rainfall is improbable over Maharashtra until Aug 22,” Khole said.
The ERF for Aug 22-29 suggests improved rainfall prospects for parts of the state, with a positive rainfall anomaly predicted. Though this period is likely to witness better r.