Just the Stats, Man: Canvass Wrap up from AZ, FL, GA, MD, MI, MN, MT, NC, NV, OH, PA, TX & WI

Hope Springs from Field PAC [website] volunteers had already settled into canvassing with Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket as the Harris campaign started to revv up their field operations. Following our own campaign plan, we stop canvassing in areas where the presidential (or senate) campaigns begin their canvassing in that area. That’s why we started with a Labor Day cut-off date, even though it is possible we will continue our own door knocking efforts if the Harris or Coordinated Campaigns don’t canvass in those areas.So we are already ceding areas or turf to the official effort. And volunteers, as well. Which is why it is so amazing that our volunteer turnout is still growing. Last Saturday didn’t see our highest vol turnout, but it was our second highest. Ever.On the 27th, we had 11,521 volunteers come out to canvass. It was the first weekend with Harris as the presumptive nominee. Last Saturday, 11,442 volunteers turned up to knock on doors. 80 people less than our record high. But we’ve now turned over 11 (out of 63) canvass areas to the Harris campaign (the moment they start canvassing in an area we’ve been doing, we ask volunteers to shift over there). So the plan is working. Early organizing lays the groundwork for a successful Fall.We are still unable to walk in Phoenix and Las Vegas (due to the Heat Risk), and Las Vegas was still too hot. (We use the National Weather Service’s HeatRisk map as part of our calcula-tions about canvassing each week.) Rain, temperature and Heat Risk guide those calcula-tions.But, still, the momentum continues. The chart above shows the explosive growth we’ve been expecting this year. Last Saturday, as schools have begun to start up again, we had a considerable increase in the number of young people show up to walk with a parent. Unlike last year, we didn’t really see a lot of that this Summer. But, like Jack Nicholson said, “they’re back!”And it’s not just because of Harris. Her candidacy is also re-invigorating the issue of Reproductive Freedom. Before her entry, the number of people who spoke up as single issue voters had been falling. But now the percentage of voters resembles more like what we saw last year. That is reassuring.The results have shown that there is a big difference between Harris and Biden in that Harris has been out traveling to Swing States trying to get the message out. A lot of traveling. This means a lot of local coverage.We have targeted 13 Swing States to knock on doors and have volunteers canvassing in all of them (although not in all areas of those states). Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin. We continue to document voter comments about Project 2025 as well as any encounters we have with MAGA canvassers or literature we find. There have not been a lot; both peaked a couple of weeks agoHere’s the thing. We aren’t knocking in urban areas, for the most part (where state and local Democratic party orgs are stronger), but the swingy areas that tend to be suburban (or even ex-urban) — and where weather is more of a factor. But these are the areas that are deciding elections in the 21st century. And, in addition to our Issues Survey, through our Constituent Service Request forms and Incident Reports, we are directly connecting them with their state and local government. Not through our volunteers, but through their own words and actions.On August 3rd, 11,442 volunteers showed up to knock on the doors of Democratic and unaffiliated voters in their neighborhoods. There are a lot of factors driving volunteer turnout, especially our special projects aimed at African-American neighborhoods by (primarily) African-American volunteers largely driven by Divine Nine chapters who have taken on this mission. Our (new) voter registration numbers in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas are evidence of this. These are grassroots driven efforts that are unaffected by any controversies in the party or the base.So the reality is that our volunteer base has been driven by a variety of different motivations, including winning Senate races. The presidential race has been a factor in these — even differently from state to state.We knocked on 842,642 doors last Saturday. That’s more than 10,000 more than we had knocked on two Saturdays ago (when we had our highest volunteer turnout). At every door, we left a piece of literature promoting Demo-crats, which remains our biggest expense (by far). We struggled to get new lit reflecting the presumptive Harris nomination in the hands of all our canvassers today (can’t confirm yet that we succeeded) and this was right after doing the same after the debate. We’ve now left at least 7,399,098 pieces of literature praising our presidential candidates and Democratic policies, as well as Democratic Senate candidates at voters doors before today.Volunteers talked to 71,575 voters in these 13 states last Saturday. That’s almost 6,000 more than we did on the 27th. Of those, 45,439 voters answered questions on our Issues Survey, at least in part. About 3,000 more than we did on the 27th. Better weather helps.We continue our special focus on voter registration in African-American communities, especially those historically affected by higher rates of lynchings in the last 150 years.Hope Springs volunteers registered 476 new voters and re-registered 676 voters at their current address to comply with federal law. We differentiate new registrants from re-registrants because we engage in follow-up communications with the people that are newly registered to vote.Hope Springs from Field PAC began knocking on doors again on March 2nd to set up a favorable “battle space” or foundation for Democrats in 2024. We target Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans. The voters we talk to in these 12 Swing States tell us they come away more invested in governance and feel more favorably towards Democrats in general because of our approach.Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization2024Hope Springs from Field understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical. Knocking on doors has repeatedly been found to be the most successful tactic to get voters to cast a ballot and that is the goal of what we do.(I will summarize our state by state results tomorrow)We canvass with an Issues Survey that is our jumping off point of conversations with voters. We find this is an easy way to begin the canvass season. 3,591 voters completed Constituent Service Request forms. A lot of these were reports about primary elections allegations. All the data we collect will be entered into VAN, the Democratic database. We knock on the doors of Democratic and Independent voters. At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit, something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand. The lit focuses on the things voters told us were important to them last fall, aiming to appeal to every voter. We also ask voters if they have an problems that local, state or federal governments need to address in their neighborhoods. But the main focus of our canvassing right now is the Issues Survey, asking voters for their input and concerns. We find that most voters who aren’t in a hurry or in the middle of something are willing to answer at least a couple of these questions, especially their top issue or concern and their views of President Biden. Voter responses to the questionnaire are entered into VAN and made available to all Democratic candidates who use VAN in the state after the primary. Creating this kind of data isn’t done with a specific goal in mind but has the purpose of engaging voters and creating a dataset that any Democratic candidate can use in opposition to a Republican.Hope Springs from Field has a hybrid approach. We aren’t interested in competing with regular campaign field organizing. We are in the field before they get there and then move on when the Democratic campaigns start their own intensive field work. Indeed, when we wind up the typical field work by Labor Day, we will encourage all the volunteers working with us to move over to the Senate campaigns in their states (and hope that our field organizers will be hired on by those campaigns). After Labor Day, we will begin organizing our Election Protection Project.We also ask voters if they have any concerns about the upcoming elections. Last year, we walked with lit about the changes in voting laws, but we also asked voters about their fears and experience in prior elections. Voters who say they have experience voter intimidation or other problems with voting are asked to fill out Incident Reports. 70 voters filled out Incident Reports last weekend.Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or the Electoral College in 2024, as well as districts that are remapped in ways that offer opportunities or vulnerabilities for Democrats next year (specifically those where a Republican won a Congressional District that voted for Biden in 2022). There is a lot of work to be done! Especially since we have had to expand the map this year.By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with these really, really onerous provisions, Hope Springs from Field seeks to undermine Republican efforts to throw Democrats off the voter rolls, informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them. There’s a lot of work to be done, but fortunately, the three states that are making it most difficult are also states in which you can knock on doors at least 10 months out of the year. And, with your help, we will be there, getting our people to super-comply with these restrictive provisions.2023 Hope Springs expensesOur biggest expense is the Voter File. But it is also a fixed cost. That won’t change as we raise and spend more money. Printing literature is our second largest cost. Printing and mailing our our Post Cards to New Voters is our third cost and paying the fees for ActBlue is the smallest of our monthly costs.But here’s the reality: Identifying Single Issue Voters and Constitutional Amendment supporters and doing GOTV (Get-Out-the-Vote) costs us more money than our regular canvassing because this issue drives volunteer turnout higher and higher and we reach more voters. Which means we have to buy more lit to distribute and other minor expenses (like water for volunteers). We are starting earlier, and staying in the field longer, for this election year. So please:If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization2024If you would rather send a check, you can follow that link for our mailing address at the bottom of the ActBlue page. Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you!