By a woman’s mid-40s, the possibility of spontaneous conception or IVF success “ approaches zero ”, say experts. Even if they do become pregnant, “overall the risks are probably higher today compared to many years ago”, says Associate Professor Alex Polyakov, an obstetrician, gynaecologist and medical director of Genea in Melbourne. Yet, Naomi Campbell had her daughter when she was 51 and her son when she was 53, via surrogate; Hilary Swank was 48 when she gave birth to twins Aya and Ohm; 44-year-old Gisele Bündchen is reportedly pregnant to her partner, jiu-jitsu instructor Joaquim Valente; while Australian model and television presenter Erin McNaught just gave birth to her third child at 42.

The rise of older celebrity mums reflects a broader trend. In the past decade, there has been an uptick in the number of people giving birth over the age of 40. Emma Scott was 48 when son Sebastian was born.

Credit: Edwina Pickles In Australia in 2022, 80,753 women were aged 35 or over when they gave birth, an increase from just over 41,400 in 1999. And the rate of women giving birth aged 40 or over has increased from less than 1 per cent in 1999 to 5 per cent in 2022. So, what’s driving the trend? And how have the risks of the “geriatric pregnancy” changed? The obvious answer to the first question – assisted reproductive technologies (ART) – is not the complete answer.

Elective egg freezing isn’t having an impact, says ­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­�.