( Editor’s note: This is excerpted from Mike Sando’s Pick Six of Nov. 11, 2024.) Quarterbacks play outsized roles in team success, especially in high-leverage moments late in games, so team results do begin to define the individual QB once the sample size grows large enough.
I don’t think we are to that point with Burrow, even though his Tier 1 status does appear incongruent with that 1-10 record in those situations. Reminder: Joe Burrow has 1 win in the NFL when trailing in the last 8:00. — Scott Kacsmar (@ScottKacsmar) November 8, 2024 The above post from NFL analyst Scott Kacsmar flagging Burrow’s poor record in these games invited a closer look.
Since entering the NFL in 2020, Burrow is one of 26 quarterbacks with at least 50 combined regular-season and postseason pass attempts in games when his team took possession with 1-8 minutes remaining and while trailing by 1-8 points. These quarterbacks have won 34.6 percent of the time, with 22 of them winning at a higher rate than Burrow.
Tom Brady (6-5) and Patrick Mahomes (8-7) are the only two with winning records in these games since Burrow entered the league. But even the New York Giants’ Daniel Jones (4-9) has won more than Burrow, a big red flag. Advertisement When we examine statistical production for these 26 quarterbacks in these high-leverage situations, Burrow ranks first among them in EPA per pass play.
He has completed 44 of 74 passes (60 percent) for 653 yards (8.8 per attempt) with six touchdowns, one.