National Hurricane Center forecasters that they said could form into an area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean later this week, the first sign of tropical activity after nearly six days of quiet. Though forecasters said environmental conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development as the disturbance moves west, it has a low 20% chance of forming into a tropical depression or storm within the next week. The disturbance does not pose an immediate threat to Louisiana.
Though we're entering what has historically been the most active part of hurricane season, the last disturbance to spiral through the Atlantic was , which the National Hurricane Center started tracking on Aug. 8 and made landfall in Bermuda as a Category 1 storm on Aug. 17.
Ernesto spent nearly all its time alone at sea, without the company of other tropical systems. In the last 100 years, the tropics have been the most active in August, September and October, with Sept. 10 being the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, according to federal forecasters.
(graphic via NOAA) Forecasters soon. Based on records from 1944 to 2020, the busiest time of year in the Atlantic basin has been from mid-August to early October, according to the National Hurricane Center..