Tick numbers in Scotland could almost double by 2080 due to climate change if temperatures rise by 4C, researchers have warned. Mathematicians at the University of Stirling’s Faculty of Natural Sciences have developed a new model that predicts tick density under varying climate change scenarios and produced maps showing which areas of Scotland will be worst affected. Ticks are small arachnid parasites that are found in grassy, woodland areas, often favouring heather in Scotland, and are known to spread viral and bacterial infections such as Lyme disease.
Lyme disease can last for months, or in some cases, years, and symptoms include facial paralysis, arrythmia in the heart, and other symptoms similar to meningitis. Researchers say that if global temperatures increase by 1C by 2080, the number of ticks in Scotland will increase by 26 per cent. Should global temperatures increase by 4C, ticks will almost double, with a 99 per cent increase predicted by 2080.
World leaders promised in 2015 to try to limit the long-term temperature rise to 1.5C to help avoid the most damaging effects. Professor Rachel Norman, who led the study, said: “The model predicted an increase in tick densities and a spread of tick distribution over Scotland for all climate warming scenarios by 2080.
The strength of these predicted increases in tick density varied depending on the habitat. “While woodland habitats were predicted to experience the highest absolute increases, the largest proportional in.