Acouple of years into the COVID-19 pandemic, a California state flag appeared on a front porch near my parents' home in suburban Austin. The whole thing felt a little too on the nose, as if one household was trying to sum up all of the city's recent changes — the tidal wave of coastal dwellers, the skyrocketing home values, the maddening traffic — with a single banner. The flag is gone now, and so is the gold rush.
Home prices and asking rents in Austin are down significantly from a year ago. Local Zillow listings are littered with price cuts. Real-estate agents who once doubled as bouncers at crowded open houses are now hiring ice-cream trucks to lure prospective buyers into properties.
The sudden shift in Austin's real-estate market can be read in two ways. Look at it through one lens, and it's a cautionary tale in which FOMO-filled buyers irrationally bid up home prices, setting the stage for an inevitable bust. Look at it another way, though, and it's a success story of a growing city: Real-estate developers saw all those millennials and out-of-towners clamoring for a piece of Austin and answered the call, building tens of thousands of new homes in just a few years.
The construction boom, combined with spiking mortgage rates, kept prices from spiraling further out of control. In other words, Econ 101 happened. This isn't a bust in the traditional sense — pretty much anyone who owned a home in Austin before 2020 is substantially richer today than they were a few year.