Summary COMAC has consistently delivered over 20 ARJ21 aircraft annually since 2020, but faces a potential production overcapacity issue. Orders surged in 2019, resulting in high deliveries by 2020, rapidly depleting backlog orders, raising concerns. Without new orders, the ARJ21 program faces overcapacity; options include securing orders and customers, converting planes to freighters, or reducing the production rate if necessary.
With COMAC delivering its 142nd ARJ21 aircraft last week, the number of ARJ21 deliveries in 2024 has reached 20. This confirms that COMAC has delivered more than 20 ARJ21s annually for five consecutive years since 2020 and makes it almost certain that the total number of ARJ21s delivered this year will surpass last year’s 22. However, behind these positive numbers lies a looming production overcapacity issue within the ARJ21 program.
If corresponding measures are not implemented in the coming months, this problem could potentially surface as early as mid-next year. Year Number of ARJ21 Deliveries 2015 1 2016 1 2017 2 2018 6 2019 12 2020 23 2021 21 2022 34 2023 22 2024 20 (YTD) Total 142 (YTD) Early orders and production capacity of the ARJ21 program From the development phase to the initial delivery phase, the ARJ21 program faced a long-standing issue of insufficient orders, with only 30 confirmed orders from Chengdu Airlines for an extended period. In 2009, COMAC signed a letter of intent for 30 ARJ21 aircraft with United Eagle Airlines, the pred.