A re the Conservatives a dead party walking? Settling down to a lengthy leadership contest, the contenders for the crown are hoping for a quick bounce back. But first, let’s look at some of the candidates’ diagnoses of the party’s worst defeat in its parliamentary history. James Cleverly is of the view that his party was rejected because it was lacking discipline and unity .
Tom Tugendhat’s pitch supposes that it lost the trust of voters because of failures to get to grips with immigration, and he therefore would be willing to pull Britain out of the European convention on human rights. Announcing her candidacy, Priti Patel said it was “time to put unity before personal vendetta, country before party and delivery before self-interest”. None of these solutions would address the deeper, existential crisis their party faces: the grim reaper is coming for their voters.
A provisional review of where 2019’s votes went found that 1.4 million Tory voters had died. The number of Labour voters who died during the same period was 400,000, but unlike the Tories, Labour voters keep renewing themselves as more young people come of voting age.
The Times estimates that by 2029, 1.2 million people who voted Tory last month will have died; that number for Labour is 500,000. According to these figures, Labour’s voters will be more than replaced by 800,000 new younger voters.
Only 160,000 of those who come of age by 2029 are projected to vote Conservative. This suggests the party.