French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou is expected on Wednesday to survive a no-confidence vote in parliament, winning some breathing space after less than two months in office but by no means ensuring his long-term future. Bayrou, a veteran centrist named by President Emmanuel Macron in December to end months of political crisis, on Monday used a controversial constitutional article to ram his cost-cutting budget through parliament without a vote. But the use of this mechanism, article 49.
3, allows the opposition to put forward a no-confidence motion and the bid to topple the government was duly proposed by the hard-left France Unbowed, backed by the Communists and the Greens, to be voted on Wednesday. But while Bayrou is nowhere near having a majority in the National Assembly, the Socialists and far-right National Rally (RN) both said they would not back the no-confidence motion. This gives Bayrou the numbers to survive and see through the budget.
But it is unlikely to be the only challenge to his shaky administration in the coming months. Bayrou, a keen historian who has written a book on his hero French king Henri IV assassinated in Paris in 1610, is well versed in how political ambition can suddenly come to an end. “Passive support from both the Socialists and Marine Le Pen’s far-right for Bayrou will end once a 2025 budget is fully enacted in the next few days,” risk analysis firm Eurasia Group said, giving a 70-percent chance that the government will “fall in th.