Experts puzzle over why Bayesian yacht sank. Was it a 'black swan event'?

The Bayesian set off on a leisurely cruise around Italy's southern coast on a sunny day in late July. The luxurious super yacht − which boasted one of the largest masts in the world and carried a crew of business moguls, including and his family and a chair of Morgan Stanley − set sail from the Amalfi Coast, bound for Sicily. Less than a month later, , leaving its cook dead and six of its passengers, including at least two Americans, missing and prompting a massive search that has drawn international attention.

Now, experts are trying to piece together why in the early hours Monday the Bayesian was quickly pulled under the waves amid a storm that saw at least one tornado spin up over the water. The combination of unlikely factors that could have contributed to the ship's fate constituted a "black swan event," Matthew Schanck, chairman of the Maritime Search and Rescue Council, told USA TODAY. The Bayesian was well-built: A 2008 product of Italian ship maker Perini, it was constructed in accordance with international maritime standards and commercially certified by the U.

K.'s Maritime and Coastguard Agency, according to Schanck. The bout of bad weather that swept the area when the ship went down was also out of the ordinary in the northern Mediterranean, "which isn't renowned for prolonged, significant stormy weather," he said.

"The fact that those two elements have then resulted in the foundering of a super yacht is pretty extraordinary," Schanck said. "These things don't.