Since Donald Trump was reelected on November 5, speculation about what his presidency will mean for the war in Ukraine, which has now entered its 1,000th day, . It is easy to be skeptical of Trump’s campaign assertion that he would end the war in 24 hours, even before taking office in January 2025. But all the signs clearly point in the direction of a serious diplomatic push by Trump to force Moscow and Kyiv to agree on a ceasefire and possibly a broader settlement.
Whatever the outcome of Trump’s dealmaking, it will have consequences that need to be taken seriously and prepared for. From a Ukrainian perspective, the implication is that the country would lose its currently Russian-occupied territories, at least for the time being, and would have to give up on its aspiration for NATO membership. This is for Ukraine.
However, given recent Russian advances on the front lines in both eastern Ukraine and the Ukrainian-held parts of the inside Russia, Kyiv can ill-afford a continuation of the war. This is particularly true if Trump follows through on his threat to cut all military support for Ukraine. The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, acknowledged as much on November 16 that Kyiv “must do everything so that this war ends next year .
.. through diplomatic means.
” This was partly a nod in Trump’s direction, indicating Ukraine’s willingness to engage in possible US-brokered mediation efforts. But it was also an acceptance that Ukraine’s long-term prospects in t.