Bitcoin is down more than 11% for the month, even after its bounce back from the recent broad market sell-off — but it still may fall further before testing new highs, according to Wolfe Research. On Thursday evening, bitcoin fell below $60,000, after sustaining that level for much of this week following the big sell-off and rebound in risk assets the week before. And even though the flagship cryptocurrency is still holding on to a year-to-date gain of about 36%, according to Coin Metrics, there's little evidence that it'll be ready to shoot higher anytime soon.
"Price has chopped around and worked incrementally lower since peaking in March," Wolfe Research chart analyst Rob Ginsberg said in a note Wednesday. "Strong conviction lacks in either direction, but as trend followers, it is becoming clear to us that the path of least resistance is to the downside." BTC.
CM= .SPX mountain 2024-03-01 Bitcoin and the S & P 500 since March There's more downside in ether too, he added. That's true of cryptocurrencies broadly, a trend Ginsberg said he expects to continue.
He pointed out that cryptocurrencies have diverged significantly from equities over the past few months, with equities outperforming crypto since March – when bitcoin reached its all-time high, pulling other coins up with it. Bitcoin itself is down more than 6% since March 1, while the S & P 500 is up 8% and gold up more than 20% in the same period. "This is a much different backdrop than years past when excess liquid.