A first pan-European assessment reveals that, even if current climate policies succeed in limiting the global temperature rise to 3°C, temperature-driven mortality may increase. Without additional adaptation measures, 55,000 additional deaths could occur annually by the end of this century. This 13.
5% increase in temperature-related deaths stresses the cost of delaying climate action. The results of the assessment also reveal disparities in temperature-related mortality across Europe, with cold-related deaths presently occurring 2.5 times more frequently in the east than in the west, and heat-related deaths being over six times more common in the south than in the north.
Notably, cold-related fatalities grossly outnumber heat-related ones: at present, the approximate ratio is 8.3 to 1. But as global warming unfolds, projections show a surge in heat-related deaths bringing this ratio to 2.
6 versus 1 for a 4°C temperature rise. The main driving factors of such a shift are twofold: climate and demographic changes. The study, led and co-authored by JRC scientists, investigates present and projected future excess mortality caused by temperature change in 1,368 European regions across 30 countries: EU27, Norway, Switzerland, and the UK.
It considers age-specific characteristics and local socio-economic and environmental vulnerabilities. According to the study, the total mortality burden attributable to excessively hot or cold temperatures currently (baseline period 1991-2020) amo.