As Milton takes aim at Florida, why is Tampa Bay so vulnerable to hurricanes?

The last time the eye of a major storm like Hurricane Milton struck Tampa Bay, in 1921, the city was a sleepy backwater of a few hundred thousand people. A century later, it’s among the fastest-growing metropolises in the United States, with more than 3 million people, and highly vulnerable to flooding due to climate change. As Milton barrels toward the Gulf Coast of Florida, strengthening Monday into a Category 5 storm, experts are worried that a century of luck could come to a sudden end.

Here’s what to know: Why is Tampa so vulnerable? The National Hurricane Center is predicting storm surge in Tampa Bay and surrounding waters of between 8 and 12 feet (2.5 to 3 meters) above normal tide conditions, and rainfall of between 4 and 6 inches (10 to 15 centimeters) because of Hurricane Milton. The entire Gulf Coast of Florida is especially vulnerable to storm surge.

Last week, , which came ashore some 150 miles (240 kilometers) away from Tampa in the Florida Panhandle, still managed to cause drowning deaths in the Tampa area due to surges of around 5 to 8 feet (1.5 to 2.5 meters) above normal tide levels.

“Had it made landfall just little farther to the south and east, it could have been a lot, lot worse,” said Philip Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University. The heightened risk is partially a result of topography. The Gulf of Mexico coastline of Florida is shallow with a gentle, sloping shelf.

The higher ocean floor acts as a barrier that retains th.