And then there were 11. One of the closest premiership races in recent memory is set to come down to the wire — with effectively 11 teams still in the mix to play finals. It crucially comes a season where the sides that finish in the bottom half in the top eight might have a genuine path to silverware.
That’s largely due to several contender sliding — and others below them getting hot — in a crazy campaign filled with twists and turns. “Who would’ve thought five weeks ago Sydney could be vulnerable in top spot and Carlton could be vulnerable to miss the eight?,” Saints legend Leigh Montagna posed on Fox Footy’s . “They were the one and two seeds, we all thought they were the best two teams in it.
” So how do the remaining challengers stack up? The ladder leads have dropped five of their past six games — including their last three — with a 112-point mauling at the hands of Port Adelaide the Swans’ heaviest defeat under John Longmire. And so now not only is Sydney vulnerable of dropping top spot on the ladder, but a top four spot altogether ahead of a showdown with revitalised Colingwood fighting to keep tis flag defence alive on Friday night. Kangaroos legend David King believes selfishness has played a part in Sydney’s “alarming” slump, suggesting there’s a sense of complacency about its first half of the season.
“There is absolutely no reason (for their decline) outside of these guys being fully satisfied with what they’ve done up until about Round 16; (they) have put themselves in front of the team,” King begun by saying. “I’ve got no doubt that the investment levels of those Sydney Swans players are not what they were at the midpoint of the season. “They’ve fallen away dramatically in all the areas that are hard work – contest, clearance, less easy ball .
.. that laser-like focus that they had, that absolute buy-in is gone.
” Round 22 - Collingwood (SCG) Round 23 - Essendon (Marvel Stadium) Round 24 - Adelaide (SCG) Brisbane is clearly the hottest team in the AFL right now, riding a nine-game losing streak. It includes an ominous 85-point demolition against St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, which was arguably a danger game after the Saints had taken some scalps in recent weeks. Having turned around a 2-5 start to the season to now have an eye on the minor premiership, King believes it’s all in front of Brisbane in Chris Fagan’s side’s best pathway yet to silverware.
“I look at this team and say: ‘Righto Chris Fagan, win the premiership now’,” King said. “You’re going to be at home for the first final and at home for a prelim. “In likelihood you’re going to play another team travelling to the MCG — not a resident of the MCG (in the grand final).
“If last year wasn’t the one, this is absolutely the most guilt-edged opportunity to win a premiership you have ever seen. “Health of course is still gong to play a major part, but look at their form line, they want for nothing — they have the best list in the comp — get it done, simple as that. “They’re clearly the best team in it.
” Round 22 - GWS (Gabba) Round 23 - Collingwood (MCG) Round 24 - Essendon (Gabba) The Power have won five of their last six games in a (once) unlikely charge into the top four. Since Round 16, Port has ranked first in the league points against and top four in clearance differential, opposition score inside 50 and contested possession differential. Saints legend believes that narrow two-point win over St Kilda in Round 16 was a “sliding doors moment” — where Ken Hinkley was overcome with emotion post-match after the Port coach had been under immense pressure.
“We saw how emotional Ken Hinkle was and we’re not sure what the repercussions might have been if they lost,” Montagna said. “Since then they have tightened the buckles, they are defending much better and scoring really well. Their contest and clearance game is in really good shape.
“We’ve seen their ceiling now ...
you’ve got to look at Port Adelaide’s form and say there’s no excuses. Why can’t they go and win prelims and finals? “They’ve got everything there — you’ve got the talent and you’ve shown you can embarrass the Western Bulldogs and Sydney Swans. Continue to do it and go and prove it in a final and silence the critics.
” Round 22 - Melbourne (MCG) Round 23 - Adelaide (Adelaide Oval) Round 24 - Fremantle (Optus Stadium) Another team that’s recently turned around its form, the Giants have won five games in a row to climb into the top four. It was capped off by an epic come-from-behind win over the in-from Hawks on the weekend, with Jesse Hogan bagging five goals to move into first place in the Coleman Medal leaderboard with 58 majors. “They kicked five goals from their defensive 50 in a quarter of football — that’s the only time in the history of this football club it’s happened,” King said.
“(Hawthorn) held a loose behind the ball and the opposition rolled Daniels up to the footy and fleeced them. “They got their handball going and their run and overlap. Daniels was big, Toby Greene came to the party and Hogan was always there.
” Round 22 - Brisbane (Gabba) Round 23 - Fremantle (ENGIE Stadium) Round 24 - Western Bulldogs (Mars Stadium) The Cats might be technically fifth on the ladder, but they’re just a game behind first place amid a logjam of contenders jostling for a top four spot. Jeremy Cameron kicked six goals in Saturday’s win over Adelaide to continue the star forward’s hot form. Since Round 15 Cameron is ranked first in the competition in shots a goal and fourth in score involvements.
King highlighted the Cats’ pressure was “ridiculous” to the point that the Crows “couldn’t breathe or move,” while Geelong also dominated clearances (+20) and contested possessions (+23). “They probably don’t have talent for talent to match some of the other teams they’re going to play in finals,” Montagna said. “But if they bring that, they’re hard to break those tackles and they can break tackles themselves.
“That’s their point of difference and it was back to their best.” Round 22 - Fremantle (Optus Stadium) Round 23 - St Kilda (Marvel Stadium) Round 24 - West Coast (GMHBA Stadium) Justin Longmuir and company will be left ruing Freo’s fade out loss to Essendon on Sunday that could prove costly. For the Dockers on the run home play three teams currently ahead of them — though two at home in a defining period as they look to reclaim a spot in the top four.
“It was their efficiency with their ball use that kept them in it, which has been a knock for them all year — but their kicking, precision going inside 50 and goalkicking was excellent,” Montagna said. “Then they got to work and did what they always do around clearance. But unfortunately it’s one they let slip and it might cost them a top four spot.
” Round 22 - Geelong (Optus Stadium) Round 23 - GWS (ENGIE Stadium) Round 24 - Port Adelaide (Optus Stadium) Are they the second seed to Brisbane? The Dogs have won four-straight games including convincing victories over Geelong and Sydney to surge into premiership contention. Luke Beveridge’s side has been particularly impressive in recent times, conceding 56 points from turnover the last three weeks — the lowest ever recorded over a three-week period. “It’s a spread load, this is why we’re falling in love with the Dogs again.
Their numbers are ridiculous — 16 players had a clearance on the weekend,” King said, “If you get it wrong against the Dogs at clearance, you lose, it’s as simple as that. “Most of their game is in really good order to be fair ..
. it’s quite remarkable what they’re doing. “It’s not like they’re not turning the ball over — they’re ranked eighth for turning if over — they just don’t bleed.
“Their whole profile has changed, they’re right there with Brisbane and have been there for a little while.” Round 22 - Adelaide (Adelaide Oval) Round 23 - North Melbourne (Marvel Stadium) Round 24 - GWS (Mars Stadium) Once seen as the number two seed to Sydney, the Blues have suffered a big fall from grace — with four losses from their last five games — to be at risk of missing the finals completely ahead of a critical clash with Hawthorn. Bleeding scores from stoppage has been a major problem, with Carlton ranked 17th in points against from clearance and ranked 18th in points against from defensive 50 stoppages.
Montagna showed vision from early in the fourth quarter of the Blues loss to Collingwood where Adam Saad let Jamie Elliott run free from a defensive stoppage to put the Pies ahead by 32 points — a lead they narrowly held onto despite Carlton’s late charge. “It’s a big watch we’ve had for about six weeks now — their ability to defend stoppage ..
. no doubt internally they’ve been focusing on this for six weeks,” he said. “They’re the little margins why Carlton haven’t improved in the last six weeks and why they’re still in this position — little things like that they have to sharpen up on if they want to win a flag.
” Round 22 - Hawthorn (MCG) Round 23 - West Coast (Optus Stadium) Round 24 - St Kilda (Marvel Stadium) The Bombers kept their season alive with a bonkers comeback from 25 points down over Fremantle. While it has Brad Scott’s side now sitting just half a game outside the top eight, Montagna questioned why it took for the Dons’ campaign to be hanging by a thread to rediscover the ‘Essendon edge’. It comes ahead of a winnable game at Marvel Stadium against the Suns before the Bombers finish their home and away season against Sydney (Marvel Stadium) and Brisbane (Gabba).
“I walked away thinking: ‘Where’s that been, why now?’ Why when the pressure was almost off and finals were almost out of reach?’,” Montagna posed. “They were embarrassed all week in the media ..
. by all reports Brad Scott looked them in the eye and put those hard questions to a few of them and embarrassed them in the team meeting about their effort and contest. “They’d failed the test in all these other games and now they finally stand up when it almost felt like all hope was gone .
.. it’s just frustrating it took for this to happen to play with that ‘Essendon edge’ again.
” Round 22 - Gold Coast (Marvel Stadium) Round 23 - Sydney (Marvel Stadium) Round 24 - Brisbane (Gabba) Sam Mitchell’s in-form side blew a five-goal lead just before three-quarter time to GWS in a loss that ended the Hawks’ three-game winning streak. It also kills some of the momentum of what was widely seen as the hottest side in football in recent times. King said the Hawks coaches box “gave the Giants luxuries and they got whacked between the eyes” — persisting with a loose man behind the ball to get exposed by GWS’ run and handball game.
“This will be one that really stings. I know we were critical of the Port Adelaide game a while back, but this one I just think if they’d made a couple of different decisions, they could've held on,” King said. “They relaxed a fraction and couldn’t gather and go.
“I wonder why Hogan didn’t get the best defender — is that something they’ll look back at and question if they could’ve gone with (Sam) Frost for larger chunks. “(Josh) Weddle did a reasonable job, but when the game was there to be one, he was the man.” Round 22 - Carlton (MCG) Round 23 - Richmond (MCG) Round 24 - North Melbourne (UTAS Stadium) The reigning premiers have kept their faint finals hopes alive with wins over Richmond and Carlton over the last fortnight.
While Collingwood rediscovered its gritty defensive DNA against the Blues, the reality is it could still win its remaining games and miss the finals, such is the hole the Pies have dug themselves in. From that regard, time isn’t on their side, but King was bullish about their prospects if they can sneak into the top eight. “The had a point of emphasis about getting numbers back.
I thought this was as good a game as you’ll see from Darcy Moore ...
a huge change, because he doesn’t have to be everything to everyone,” King said. “I think this is the best version of Collingwood, I think if they do get in (to the finals) they can shake the tree a little bit. “You’d hate to play Collingwood in this frame of mind with this sort of intensity.
I know De Goey is a huge loss ...
I just feel like this performance on the weekend was different to what we’d seen the last six to eight weeks. “I think they can see the finish line, I think they can see the finals are just here and they’ve got to be part of it.” Round 22 - Sydney (SCG) Round 23 - Brisbane (MCG) Round 24 - Melbourne (MCG).
