A First Look at Exit Polling Data -- Race, Gender, Age, and Party Preference

I’ve been going over the demographics of the last four Presidential elections (2012 — 2024) to see what sort of light a trend analysis on how different demographic groups have voted over that period of time might influence our interpretation of the disastrous electoral bloodbath we’ve all just witnessed. The data here are all derived from the exit polling data collected by NBC news for 2024, 2020, 2016, and 2012. The simplest explanation for what transpired is how voters self-identified with each party over time:Vote Share by PartyParty2012201620202024Dem38%36%37%31%Rep32%33%36%35%Ind29%31%26%34%D-R Net6%3%1%-4%Ind D-R Net-5%-6%13%3%So while Democrats started off with a significant advantage over Republicans, we’ve seen that steadily shrink with each succeeding election to near parity in 2020, and then the disastrous 5% net flip to the Republicans this year. Note that this is definitely not a case of Biden Democrats suddenly deciding they actually like the other guy better than MVP Harris, but rather some become so disillusioned with the party that they think of themselves as “Independents” now, and a significant number (~10 million?) simply don’t bother to vote at all. Note that Biden was only saved in 2020 by his significant over-performance with Independents that year.Next we’ll consider the real elephant in the room here by looking at Race and Gender:Vote Share by Race and GenderRace/Gender2012201620202024White Men34%34%35%34%White Women38%37%32%37%Black Men5%5%4%5%Black Women8%7%8%7%Latino Men5%5%5%6%Latino Women6%6%8%6%All Others5%6%8%6%Nothing terribly dramatic here in terms of who was making up the electorate, except in 2020 when white men actually showed up in significantly larger numbers than white women, and both Latino women and “Others” also showed up in larger than usual numbers. It was the significant drop-off in the number of white women voters in 2020 that reduced the overall share of white voters below the 70% threshold for the first time ever, but their recovery in this election to pre-pandemic levels led to an electorate in 2024 that almost exactly mirrored the demographics of 2016. In terms of who these different demographic groups voted for though:Dem-Rep Margin by Race and GenderDem-Rep Margin2012201620202024White Men-27%-31%-23%-23%White Women-14%-9%-11%-8%Black Men76%69%60%56%Black Women93%90%81%84%Latino men32%31%23%-12%Latina Women53%44%39%22%All Others35%30%20%2%While it’s an obvious truism that white votes, particularly among men, have always supplied by far the largest portion of Republican votes, they were not the real key to this year’s election. White men were no worse in terms of voting Republican than they had been in 2020 (and certainly better than they had been in 2012 or 2016), and white women actually moved 3% closer to the Democrats than 2020. Likewise for Black women who have always been the Democrats most loyal base of support. And while there has certainly been a noticeable decline in support for Democrats among Black men over the years, the relatively small 4% drop between 2020 and 2024 is not nearly as large as either of the preceding elections.No, the real demographic debacle here is with Latino and “Other” voters (primarily Asian, but also including Native Americans, Pacific Islanders, etc.) who had been gradually moving away from the Democratic orbit, but then took a catastrophic plunge in support this time out — from a 17% rightward shift in Latina women (and a 31% drop in Democratic support from 2012) to an 18% shift in “Others” (and a 33% drop since 2012), and a virtually unheard of 35% flip over to the Republicans (44% since 2012) for Latino men.Now let’s turn to the issue of trends among the different age cohorts:Vote Share by Age GroupAge Group201220162020202418-2919%19%17%14%30-4427%25%23%23%45-6438%40%38%35%65+16%16%22%28%As could be expected with the aging of America, the younger age cohorts’ share of the electorate is generally shrinking while the oldest continues to expand — certainly there was no upsurge in voting among the youngest cohort this election as many of us were hoping for.Dem-Rep Margin by Age GroupAge Group201220162020202418-2923%19%24%11%30-447%10%6%1%45-64-4%-8%-1%-10%65+-12%-7%-5%0%While the younger cohorts have traditionally been the most “progressive” and seniors the most “conservative,” these trends are strikingly counterintuitive. Note in particular how all age groups except seniors moved toward the Republicans this election, and the biggest move was unfortunately among the youngest — which definitely does not bode well for the future. OTOH, don’t be too eager to blame the white demographic age groups for this mess. Note the different trends evident between 2012 and 2024:Vote Share and Dem-Rep Margin by Race/Age GroupRace/Age GroupMargin:201220202024VoteShare:201220202024White 18-29-7%-9%0%11%8%8%White 30-44-21%-16%-7%18%14%15%White 45-64-23%-23%-25%29%19%25%White 65+-22%-15%-11%14%26%22%Black 18-2983%79%69%3%3%2%Black 30-4489%59%67%4%4%3%Black 45-6486%79%68%4%3%4%Black 65+87%85%88%1%3%3%Latino 18-2951%41%2%4%4%3%Latino 30-4443%28%7%3%4%3%Latino 45-6437%38%1%3%3%4%Latino 65+30%18%17%1%2%2%Interestingly, all of the white age groups except the 45-64 cohort have actually been moving toward the Democrats since 2012 — it’s mainly the white Gen-Xers (45-64) that are the real roadblock now; and once again it turns out to be the youngest Latinos (18-29) that have made the largest leap to the Right, though they’re closely followed by Latino Gen-Xers (45-64). Note that I wasn’t able to find Race/Age data for the 2016 election, so if anyone has a source/link for that specific breakout, please send it to me via the comments.In my next installment, I’ll be looking at other trends based on Religion, Economics, the Urban/Rural divide, and more specific segments like Union Households, Military Service, the LGBTQ Community, and First Time Voters — stay tuned.