Mike McCarthy's employment with the Dallas Cowboys may hinge on a deep run in the NFL Playoffs. With much more talent on his roster, Chicago Bears head coach Matt Eberflus faces much higher expectations in 2024. Nick Sirianni may not be able to afford another collapse like the Philadelphia Eagles had a season ago.
The 2024 NFL offseason coaching carousel was one for the record books. Eight vacancies were filled, and several high-profile names were left without jobs, including arguably the greatest coach in league history, Bill Belichick . And if certain scenarios play out this year, the 2025 offseason could be just as wild.
Given some of the surprise firings that occurred this past winter, there are seemingly only a handful of head coaches who are genuinely safe. On the flip side, however, there are several who may already be on the hot seat heading into the 2024 campaign, those who need to answer the call this season or risk getting axed on Black Monday next January, perhaps even sooner. Here's a look at five NFL head coaches facing uncertainty heading into the 2024 season.
No team has ever won three straight Super Bowls, but NFL oddsmakers like the Kansas City Chiefs' chances. 1 Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys With all the high-profile head coaches who were fired this offseason, the Dallas Cowboys retaining the services of Mike McCarthy came as a bit of a surprise. There’s really no doubt that McCarthy is a serviceable head coach, as his Cowboys have won 12 games in three consecutive seasons and have been a perennial playoff contender since he arrived.
But that regular-season success simply hasn’t translated to the postseason. Of course, winning games against better teams is harder, which could explain the Cowboys' 1-3 postseason record over the last three years. But perhaps a more compelling explanation is that when the gap in talent between two teams closes, the little things are the deciding factor, as in-game adjustments and schemes can be the difference between moving on to the next round and going home.
And America's Team just continues to go home, their latest postseason loss to the Green Bay Packers being one of the worst in franchise history . In a conference that boasts some of the sharpest football minds today, such as Kyle Shanahan , Sean McVay , and Matt LaFleur , it’s fair to question if McCarthy is equipped for the challenge. The standard in Dallas is far too high for Jerry Jones to continue allowing first-round exits for much longer.
2 Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears Matt Eberflus may have saved his job with his late-season defensive adjustments to close the 2023 campaign, but he’s not entirely off the hook yet. For the first time in his tenure, the Chicago Bears will enter the season with legitimate playoff aspirations. Once NFL Free Agency began, they added some new offensive weapons, bringing D'Andre Swift and Keenan Allen to the Windy City.
And as everyone expected, they selected Caleb Williams with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and then went and added another weapon in wideout Rome Odunze at No. 9 overall.
So, the pressure is mounting on Eberflus to make the Bears a contender. A season ago, with Justin Fields still trying to work things out under center, Chicago had the luxury of low expectations. Coming off a three-win season in 2022, it didn’t take much for the team to be markedly better.
Making the jump from a three-win group to a seven-win group is one thing, but taking that next step and becoming a winning football club takes a lot more. Eberflus' suspect game management was detrimental to the Bears last season, with Chicago blowing three double-digit leads. If this trend continues into the 2024 season, it will be difficult to justify keeping him around long-term, even if his defense continues to produce.
3 Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia Eagles It never bodes well for a head coach when he loses his coordinators and is unable to replicate his success from a season ago. Shane Steichen and Jonathan Gannon had their fingerprints all over the Philadelphia Eagles ’ 2022 march to the Super Bowl , and their departures were significant. But Philadelphia’s 2023 late-season regression underscored the concerns surrounding Sirianni’s value.
Without elite coordinators, the Eagles, who started 10-1 but then lost five of their last six, were unable to weather the storm and lost in the Wild Card Round to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers . The Eagles have committed too much to Jalen Hurts and the rest of the roster not to be contenders. Bringing in seasoned coordinators like Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio should help matters.
But if the Eagles are unable to secure the NFC East title in 2024, Sirianni’s job may be in jeopardy. Above all else, Sirianni needs to prove that his leadership and game management are invaluable to the Eagles’ efforts, even if he doesn’t bring much to the table schematically. 4 Dennis Allen, New Orleans Saints The New Orleans Saints appear to be stuck in the dreaded middle of the pack.
Not good enough to contend for anything meaningful and not bad enough to secure a top pick, the Saints are a franchise with no direction, and head coach Dennis Allen would be an easy casualty. New Orleans is 16-18 under Allen over the last two years, and his coaching performance has left much to be desired. There are many frustrating aspects of the Saints’ situation, many of which are not Allen's fault.
But Derek Carr is locked in the foreseeable future, New Orleans is still in salary cap hell, and many of the team's young players aren’t developing as planned. For everything the Saints can’t change, the head coach is one they easily can. Allen face-planted in his first go at head coach with the then- Oakland Raiders , and things still don’t look promising the second time around.
The one thing working in Allen’s favor is the weakened state of the NFC South. The Saints won nine games last year by virtue of not being as bad as the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers more than being a categorically good football team. A repeat situation is a possibility for 2024.
But a third straight season with no postseason berth, especially in such a vulnerable division and owning the league's easiest strength of schedule , would likely spell the end of Allen’s tenure. 5 Sean McDermott, Buffalo Bills After a breakthrough 2020 campaign, undoubtedly thanks to the emergence of Josh Allen , Sean McDermott and the Buffalo Bills have stagnated. Sure, they’ve remained among the best teams in the league and have won a playoff game in each of the last four seasons.
But Buffalo has yet to return to the AFC Championship Game since that 2020 campaign, and with each passing year, Bills Mafia becomes more angsty. The Bills are set to enter the 2024 season with a new-look roster. The departures of Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Stefon Diggs , Gabe Davis, and many others call for a changing of the guard.
With Allen manning the ship, Buffalo will be competitive and a team most won't want to face in January. However, it’s impossible to deny that this roster isn't the juggernaut it was a couple of years ago. At this point, some have questioned whether McDermott is capable of getting his team past the Kansas City Chiefs to get Buffalo to the promised land.
After all, he’s had plenty of opportunities. If he couldn’t do it before, when the Bills had one of the best rosters in the league, how is he going to do it now, with a quarterback whose massive extension is going into effect, an aging defense, and no true big-time receiver? The Bills rallied to close the 2023 season, snatching the AFC East from the Miami Dolphins despite enduring a myriad of injuries to impact players. This was a testament to McDermott’s leadership and the culture he's built.
But moral victories don’t offer the solace they did in 2020. Buffalo has a Hall of Fame-caliber quarterback in the prime of his career. If the Bills falter in 2024, the front office will be pushed to make a change.
All stats are courtesy of Pro Football Reference unless stated otherwise. The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers lead the way for their respective conferences heading into the 2024 NFL season..
