Nick Saban is gone and, just like that, I projected Alabama to finish No. 3 in the SEC in 2024. No.
3? We out here disrespecting the Tide? Like what, like they’re some token dark horse? Or, considering how much has fundamentally changed since the last time this outfit took the field, maybe the assumption that it’s still an obvious Playoff contender by default feels more like an exercise in ranking the logo? Either way ...
feels weird, right? Bama watchers speculated for years about life on the other side of the post-Saban divide, but now that the time has come, it really could go either way. The roster is not exactly a blank slate. There’s still gifted QB Jalen Milroe, a legitimate Heisman candidate on his good days, and a depth chart loaded with the typical backlog of blue-chip recruits.
But the mystique or inertia or je ne sais quoi that defined the dynasty for the better part of the past two decades was at low ebb even before Saban called it a career. From 2009-17 Alabama won 5 national titles in 9 years; since 2018, it claimed just 1 in 6 years, in a bizarro season conducted amid the chaos of a pandemic. There was certainly none of the old sense of inevitability during last year’s Playoff run, which felt more like a miracle than a birthright and ended with a thud in the semis.
Attrition hit the lineup hard (10 draft picks, 5 of them in the first 2 rounds, plus key portal departures on both sides of the ball), leaving more up-and-coming talent in its wake than recognizable stars. And the heir to the throne, 49-year-old Kalen DeBoer, has no experience in the SEC, the South, or any nationally relevant program anywhere else prior to the past 2 seasons at Washington. Wildly successful seasons, yes; still, even for an obviously competent coach the cutthroat recruiting culture of the SEC is a whole different ball of wax.
This campaign is the first one in ages that isn’t necessarily a championship-or-bust proposition. Unless DeBoer rekindles some sense of forward momentum ASAP, it’s not going to be the last. Crimson Tide at a Glance .
.. 2023 Recap: 12-2 (9-0 SEC; Lost Rose Bowl; 5th AP) Best Player: QB Jalen Milroe Best Pro Prospect: OL Tyler Booker Best Addition: OL Parker Brailsford (Washington) Best Names: DB King Mack .
.. OL Wilkin Formby Most Grizzled: DB Malachi Moore (5th year; 33 career starts) Emerging Dude: Junior Edge Quandarrius Robinson Biggest strength: Enormous, experienced o-line featuring three returning starters and a veteran transfer (Brailsford) who will all play at the next level.
Nagging concern: Complete turnover at the skill positions. The top 5 players in rushing/receiving yards in 2023 all left; their replacements are all potential with little proven production. Looming question: How high does Milroe’s ceiling go? His rapid improvement in ’23 had a lot of people ( ahem ) ready to anoint him a Heisman frontrunner in ’24; an underwhelming outing in the CFP semifinal loss to Michigan took some wind out of those sails, but there’s still no denying his raw talent.
Unlike last year, there’s also no pretense that he can count on the defense to reliably bail him out when he’s gone cold. This time around it is undeniably Milroe’s team. The schedule: The era of spending entire months at a time in cruise control is over.
In addition to a Sept. 28 visit from Georgia, road trips include Wisconsin, Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma, the latter coming the Saturday before the Iron Bowl. For a team that survived several close calls in ’23, that’s a lot of opportunities to make even a minor regression on the field look like a five-alarm fire in the standings.
RELATED: Predicting every Alabama game in 2024 The upshot Replacing the GOAT is a humbling assignment under any circumstances, but personally, at least, I always assumed that whoever followed Saban at Bama would at least have the luxury of coasting to a couple of reasonably Saban-esque seasons purely on inertia. Instead, the combination of attrition and a steep schedule makes an immediate drop-off a very real possibility. One way or the other, by December the fan base’s initial verdict on DeBoer should be abundantly clear.
.
